Crime: between reality and perception. Results of the Report realised by Central Directorate of Criminal Police and Eurispes
The survey “Crime: between reality and perception” was created within the framework of the Memorandum of Understanding signed by the Department of Public Security – Central Directorate of Criminal Police and Eurispes with the aim of sharing study and analysis paths, conducting joint research and in-depth studies on the various criminal phenomena, drawing on their respective information assets, in an exchange of data and information that brings together the experience of Italian police forces and scientific research.
Prefect Vittorio Rizzi, Vice General Director of Public Security, Central Director of Criminal Police, remarked: «In the report we are presenting today “Crime: between reality and perception”, we wanted to devote special attention to the crime trends of recent years and to some crime categories that we consider particularly sensitive within our society, such as gender violence and cybercrime. Fear and uncertainty are characteristics of our time, often fuelled by continuous emergencies, such as the pandemic, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and ecological disasters. This undermines certainties and compromises trust in the future as well as in one’s neighbour, towards whom distrust inevitably grows. This feeling of insecurity, however, is not always directly reflected in reality, so that the ambitious challenge this survey proposes is to provide an analysis based on concrete data and an overview that offers a correct interpretation of the phenomena, beyond commonplaces and mere alarmism».
«The survey we are presenting – explains Gian Maria Fara, President of Eurispes –, represents a cross-section of criminal phenomena in Italy as an indispensable tool in the elaboration of prevention and contrast strategies aimed at raising security standards. The study responds to a need for information on security issues, which take priority in the public debate in Italy, as well as in the feelings of every citizen. Security is indeed one of the central topics in political and media communication, but it is necessary to distinguish between real risk and perceived risk, categories that often do not coincide, the former based on objective and measurable data, the latter conditioned by subjective dynamics such as fear and uncertainty about the future. This study can be a useful instrument to read through the complexity, with an analysis of real data, also in their historical evolution, which refer to reported crimes and to citizens’ simple experiences».
The (real) trend of crimes in Italy during the pandemic years
According to the data processed by the Criminal Analysis Service of the Central Directorate of Criminal Police, in Italy, for the period 2007-2022 (non-consolidated data), the overall total of crimes showed a fluctuating trend until 2013, and then revealed a steady decrease from 2014 to 2020. In 2021 and 2022, on the other hand, there is an upward trend: in particular, in 2022, there are 2,183,045 recorded crimes, an increase of 3.8% compared to 2021. It is, however, important to emphasise the particularity of the years 2020 and 2021, which are characterised by restrictions on people’s mobility. Therefore, when compared to 2019, the crimes committed in 2022 appear to be decreasing.
Compared to 2021, the increase in offences in 2022 concerned thefts (+17.3%), extortion (+14.4%), robberies (+14.2%), sexual assault (+10.9%), handling stolen goods (+7.4%), damage (+2.9%) and malicious wounding (+1.4%); in contrast, a decrease in the exploitation of prostitution and child pornography (-24.7%), usury (-15.8%), smuggling (-10.4%), arson (-3%) and damage followed by fire (-2.3%) was registered.
Taking into consideration the four-year period 2019-2022, it can be seen that persecution and ill-treatment against family members and cohabitants show a significant decrease in 2022. Sexual assaults, on the other hand, while decreasing in 2020 compared to the previous year, show a steadily increasing trend in the following two years. In the last year, 314 homicides were recorded, with 124 female victims (+4% compared to 2021), of whom 102 were killed in a family/affective sphere; of these, 60 died at the hands of their partner/ex-partner. On the other hand, there is a decrease in the number of crimes committed in the family/affective sphere, from 148 to 139 (-6%). The total number of homicides committed rises from 304 in 2021 to 314 in 2022 (+3%); in general, however, there has been a decrease in this crime over the years, as there were twice as many in 2007 (632).
Citizens and security: between reality and perception. The sample survey
In order to thoroughly investigate the level of security perceived by citizens, both in relation to themselves and their surroundings, Eurispes and the Central Directorate of Criminal Police, with the help of the Criminal Analysis Service, developed and carried out a nationwide survey involving 1,026 citizens.
Of the citizens, 61.5% say they live in a city/town that they consider safe. Compared to the results obtained for the same question in the survey carried out by Eurispes in 2019, the proportion of those who feel safe in their place of residence increases (they were 47.5%). The majority of citizens say they feel fairly and very safe going out alone during the day in their area of residence, in 83.3% of cases overall. Things change when it comes to going out in the evening and the positive response rate decreases (67.6%). Home is the place where a larger proportion of the sample feels safe (81%).
Over the past three years, and thus since the beginning of the pandemic, the fear of crime has increased for 24.8% of the sample, while 7.3% report being less afraid than in the past.
Among the strategies used to “keep themselves safe”, in the last three years, 22.5% of the respondents installed an alarm system, 21.4% installed window grilles and 20.7% put up armoured doors. Carrying pepper spray (8.7%), a knife (8.6%) or buying a firearm (3.6%) are options adopted by a small part of the sample.
Among the crimes that most worry Italians in terms of security, housebreaking (26.6%) stands out, followed at a considerable distance by physical assault (17.7%) and then the fear of being mugged/ pickpocketed (11.1%).
Apart from the general perception of the widespread occurrence of crimes, the two crimes where the greatest fear of being personally victimised is concentrated are housebreaking (58.3%) and theft of personal data on the Internet (55.1%). In third place is fraud (46.2%), followed by mugging/ pickpocketing (45%), car/motorcycle theft (42%), robbery (40%) and injury (35.9%). One in four respondents (25.6%) fear being a victim of sexual violence, followed by mistreatment of family members and cohabitants (22.2%) and extortion/usury (15.6%). The crimes that are perceived, in most cases, to be more dangerous than in the past are: theft of personal data on the Internet (56.2%), fraud (53.5%), housebreaking (53.1%) and mugging/ pickpocketing (50.6%).
Social unease is indicated as the first motivation behind the spread of criminal phenomena (16.6%), followed by the difficult economic situation (15.8%), the lack of severe punishments/easy release from prison (11.9%), the lack of a culture of legality (11.5%) and the power of criminal organisations (11.2%). Insufficient presence of State institutions was denounced by 9% of the sample, 8.4% indicated the job shortage as a trigger, 5.7% the substantial impunity linked to the slowness of trials, 5.3% the few resources available to the police and the excessive presence of immigrants (4.7%).
What strategies should be pursued to fight crime? For 16.9% of the citizens, it is necessary to increase employment, for 16.3% to guarantee the certainty of punishment, for 14.9% to strengthen the deployment of the police force and for 14.6% to support the weaker categories; 11.6% call for a tightening of penalties, 10% would like to promote education for legality, 8% would solve the problem by limiting the access of immigrants to the country and 7.2% by guaranteeing fast criminal trials.
Respondents were then asked to comment on who are the main perpetrators of crimes among Italians and foreigners. A large proportion of the sample (47%) believes that crimes are committed equally by Italians and foreigners; about one in five respondents think that the perpetrators are mainly foreigners (20.7%) and only 6.1% attribute the blame to Italians. The non-response rate to this question is significant (26.2%).
When asked to express an opinion on the way the media represent the crime problem, 27.9% of the sample indicated that the media’s narrative is realistic, 26.1% think that crime is portrayed less severely than in reality, 2% think that the media offer an alarmist view and 25 % do not know or prefer not to answer.
The survey tried to relocate crime as a less media-driven and more real-life experience by asking respondents to answer about direct or indirect experiences: relatives, friends, acquaintances or themselves as victims of crime.
In the last year, Italians stated that they had mainly been victims of Internet scams (14.7%), threats (11.2%), and housebreaking (11%). One Italian in ten (10.2%), on the other hand, had been the victim of scams and frauds, such as credit card cloning, financial scams, fortune-tellers, travel agencies or false contracts, 7.3% of muggings and pickpocketing, 6.1% of car theft (4% of car theft while parked), while 6.2% had been tricked by false job applications. Among the respondents, 5.5% were victims of physical aggression, 2.3% of extortion and usury, 1.7% of sexual assault.
As a result of the crimes they had been victims of, 43.8% of citizens filed a complaint, while the majority (56.2%) chose not to report the crime they had suffered. Those who reported the crime they had suffered were then asked to consider the actions of the law enforcement agencies they had approached when reporting the crime. Of those surveyed, 73.1% were satisfied with the helpfulness shown by the law enforcement agencies, the judgement on the level of professionalism was also good (70%) and 68.3% rated their commitment positively, while the efficiency shown was judged adequate in 58.1% of cases.
In the last three years, from the pandemic to the current crisis situation, people’s sense of insecurity, manifested in the fear of being a victim of homicide, has grown (for 16.3% it has increased, while it has decreased for 6.1%).
The survey then attempted to shed light on violence within the family, by asking respondents whether they had experienced physical or psychological violence within the family. More than one in ten (11.6%) had experienced humiliation and insults, 5.6% had been threatened, 4.5 % had been victims of persecution, and 3.8 % had been victims of family abuse. More than 3% of the sample suffered injuries and beatings, 1.8% segregation at home, 1.3% sexual abuse. At the time of the violence, 6 out of 10 victims were at home, 13.7% were on the street or in another public place (12%). Of the victims, 8% experienced violence while at work, 5.7% on public transport. The violence suffered in the majority of cases was not repeated (52.6%), while for 47.4% of the victims it was not an isolated case. One in three violence occurred in the presence of a minor (33.7%).
The sample was then asked whether anyone they knew (among relatives, friends or acquaintances) had experienced physical or psychological violence within the family. As this was an indirect question, the percentages went up for all items: insults and humiliation occurred in 20.2% of cases, ill-treatment in 15.4%, threats in 14.7%. Respondents also reported that their friends, relatives and acquaintances were subjected to persecution in 12.3% of cases, beatings (11.3%), injuries (9%), sexual assault (5%), and segregation at home (4.1%). Family violence against relatives, friends and acquaintances was mainly perpetrated by the ex-partner (46.5%); 32.4% were perpetrated by the partner, 21.1% by another family member. Concerning the victim’s reaction to the violence suffered, the sample reported that in 23.6% of the cases the victim asked friends, relatives, colleagues for help; 17.7% of the victims defended themselves, 17.2% did nothing. 11.1% of the victims filed a complaint with the police or Carabinieri offices, 8.4% went to an anti-violence centre, 7.6% called 112, 4.7% contacted the public utility number 1522. More than 1 in 10 respondents happened to be victims of sexual harassment (11.4%). Of those who experienced harassment, the vast majority received jokes, insistent innuendoes (75.2%). In addition, the majority also reported explicit sexual advances (51.3%) and slightly less than half reported physical harassment (43.6%). Less frequent, but extremely serious, are the cases of physical aggression (16.2%) and sexual blackmail (15.4%), while 13.7% have received sexually oriented photos/videos.
More than a fifth of Italians report having been a victim of online shopping scams (21.6%). The second most common cybercrime is fraudulent requests for money from people pretending to be friends/relatives in trouble (18.7%), the third is the theft of authentication data such as name, password, bank details, etc. (17.8%). This is followed by deception by false identity that happened to 14.4% of respondents, while 13.7% have suffered identity theft (someone has appropriated their profile on social networking sites to steal money or for scams/false statements or to send e-mails/viruses). One in 10 has experienced cyber stalking, i.e. stalking via the Net, and 9.1% have had their e-mail account hacked. Slightly less widespread were ransomware (6.5%) and another hideous form of “digital violence”: revenge porn (6%).
A fifth of respondents reported having felt that their privacy had been violated by being contacted online in a persistent manner (20.6%); almost a fifth by having seen photos in which they were present published online without consent (19.6%); 16.4% by having sentences revealing personal matters published online; 15.8% by having videos in which they were present published online without consent. The percentage of those who were annoyed by the online dissemination of false and defamatory information against them was smaller (8.9%).
Finally, Italians were asked how they judge the legitimacy of gun ownership. While 44.8% consider it a danger, because weapons can end up in the wrong hands, 19.2% believe that it is a right to be reserved only for particular categories exposed to risks (dealers, etc.), 18.4% think, on the other hand, that it represents the possibility for any citizen to defend himself against ill-intentioned persons.
Slightly more than 1 in 4 respondents (27.1%) would buy a weapon for self-defence, 72.9%, on the contrary, would not. Regarding the hypothesis of using a weapon in the event of a concrete threat to oneself and/or one’s family, the sample is split down the middle with 49% answering in the affirmative and 51% in the negative.
The full report can be downloaded online at the link:
https://www.interno.gov.it/sites/default/files/2023-05/la_criminalita-_tra_realta_e_percezione.pdf
The summary of the Report can be downloaded by clicking here
