The Bush effect. Quarterly report on stock exchanges (2004)

Like all the main world stock exchanges, the Italian Stock Exchange has had an entirely positive year in terms of the average of the various stocks. The four-monthly Eurispes Report (July-November 2004) provides data on the performance of three major sectors: industrial, services and financial. The good increase in the general index over the twelve months (+12.16%), is broken down into an appreciable rise in financials (+7.2%), the excellent result of stocks in services companies (+21.4%, much higher than the general average), but above all indicates the strong recovery of industrials, which grew by almost a fifth of their value (19.41%) compared to November 2003. However, it should not be forgotten that the Milan Stock Exchange is still heavily discounting the losses accumulated in past years, but it does show how industrial stocks are holding up compared to five years ago. While financial stocks are still down 9% and services down 15% compared with five years ago (November 1999), industrial stocks have gained 7%. This is a significant figure, as it shows a trend towards the industrial sector in both the short and long term, while shares in services and financial companies are suffering from marked fluctuations.

Is this a sign that the stock market is betting seriously on industrial recovery?

The growth of the Milan Stock Exchange is finally confirmed by the trend of the volumes traded both in quantity and in value. Compared to the survey conducted by Eurispes at the end of July, trades have increased by 40% (39.48%) and their value by 13% (13.41%).

However, compared to four years ago, it should not be forgotten that stocks on the Milan stock exchange are still showing substantial losses.